Universal Two-Child Policy
On 29 October 2015 the Fifth Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee decided to "fully implement the policy allowing every couple to have two children"; on 27 December the NPC Standing Committee amended the Population and Family Planning Law to "advocate that a couple have two children", effective 1 January 2016, ending more than three decades of the one-child policy. Births rose to 17.86 million in 2016, below official forecasts, then fell steadily to 9.56 million in 2022, when the population began to shrink. A three-child policy followed in 2021.
The Decision
According to Xinhua, China wrote "the state advocates and promotes family planning" into its Constitution in 1978, and the Population and Family Planning Law of 2002 "advocated that a couple have one child"; officials say long-term family planning meant "more than 400 million fewer births". In November 2013 the Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee decided to allow couples in which one partner was an only child to have a second child. The Fifth Plenum of the 18th Central Committee, held from 26 to 29 October 2015, decided to "uphold family planning as a basic state policy, improve the population development strategy, fully implement the policy allowing every couple to have two children, and actively respond to population ageing". Officials cited a population structure marked by "ageing and few children", a clear fall in the desire to have children, and an absolute decline in the working-age population.
Legislation and Implementation
On 27 December 2015 the NPC Standing Committee amended the Population and Family Planning Law to state that "the state advocates that a couple have two children", effective 1 January 2016; the clause that "family planning is a basic state policy" was retained. Xinhua said about 90 million women became newly eligible for a second child, and Wang Pei'an, deputy head of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, forecast that China's population would peak at 1.45 billion in 2029. According to Yicai, the commission's projection report had expected births to reach 21.099 million in 2017 and to peak at 21.886 million in 2018.
Effects
National Bureau of Statistics data show 17.86 million births in 2016, 1.42 million above the 16.44 million annual average of the 12th Five-Year Plan period, and 17.23 million in 2017, of which 8.83 million were second children — for the first time more than half of all births (51.2%) — while first births fell by 2.49 million. Actual 2017 births were about 3.87 million below the commission's forecast. CASS demographer Zheng Zhenzhen told Yicai that early studies had assumed about 70% of eligible couples wanted a second child, which proved "far from reality". Births kept falling thereafter, to 9.56 million in 2022, when the national population fell by 850,000; the NBS attributed this to fewer women of childbearing age and to "changing attitudes to childbearing and later marriage and childbirth".
Afterwards
On 31 May 2021 a Politburo meeting chaired by Xi Jinping decided to introduce "a policy allowing a couple to have three children, with supporting measures".
Narrative Comparison
| Source | Narrative |
|---|---|
| Xinhuanet (27 Dec. 2015); National Bureau of Statistics (Jan. 2018; Jan. 2023) | Officially, the universal two-child policy was an adjustment of population strategy to improve the basic state policy of family planning and respond to ageing, not an abandonment of family planning. NPC Standing Committee member Liu Zhenqi called the amendment "very necessary and very timely"; Xinhua stressed that "family planning is a basic state policy" remained, and said the policy would boost housing and education spending, "ease the pressure of ageing and increase labour supply". In 2018 the NBS said its effects "continued to show", with second births "largely offsetting the fall in first births"; in 2023 it attributed falling births to fewer women of childbearing age and "changing attitudes to childbearing and later marriage". |
| Zhou, Journal of Contemporary China 28(117), 2019 (abstract); Abrahamson, Asian Social Work and Policy Review 10(3), 2016 (abstract) | Western scholars questioned early on whether lifting quantity limits alone could reverse low fertility, and focused on social consequences. Brown University's Yun Zhou, drawing on over a hundred in-depth interviews, found widespread time and financial concerns, with women also facing labour-market disadvantage and a perceived "incompatibility between work and motherhood"; without measures addressing women's work-life conflict, she argued, the universal two-child policy "may not successfully boost fertility level, but would rather exacerbate" gender inequity in the labour market. Peter Abrahamson of the University of Copenhagen (2016) argued that although the one-child policy had ended, its unintended consequences — the care deficit of the "4-2-1" family and the skewed sex ratio — "prevail". |
Key Milestones
- Fifth Plenum decides on universal two-child policy
The plenum decides to allow every couple two children and to respond actively to population ageing.
- NPC Standing Committee amends the law
The law now states that "the state advocates that a couple have two children", effective 1 January 2016.
- Policy takes effect
The amended Population and Family Planning Law takes effect.
- Three-child policy
A Politburo meeting decides to allow couples three children, with supporting measures.
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Chronicles of Modern China. (2026, October 24). Universal Two-Child Policy. Retrieved October 24, 2026, from https://www.cmcarchive.org/events/universal-two-child-policy-2015
“Universal Two-Child Policy.” Chronicles of Modern China. Last modified October 24, 2026. Accessed October 24, 2026. https://www.cmcarchive.org/events/universal-two-child-policy-2015.
Chronicles of Modern China. Universal Two-Child Policy[EB/OL]. (2026-10-24)[2026-10-24]. https://www.cmcarchive.org/events/universal-two-child-policy-2015.