Taiwan's 2024 Elections and Lai Ching-te's Inauguration

Background

Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party won Taiwan's leadership (ROC presidential) elections in 2016 and 2020. For 2024 the DPP nominated Vice President and party chairman Lai Ching-te with former representative to the United States Hsiao Bi-khim as running mate; the Kuomintang nominated New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih with Jaw Shaw-kong, and the Taiwan People's Party nominated former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je with Cynthia Wu, making it a three-way race.

The Vote and the Results

On 13 January 2024 Taiwan held its leadership and legislative elections together. According to the Central Election Commission, about 19.55 million people were eligible to vote and turnout was 71.86%, down from 74.90% in 2020. Lai and Hsiao won with 5,586,019 votes, or 40.05%; Hou and Jaw took 33.49% and Ko and Wu 26.46%. Lai became the first vice president since direct elections began to be elected to the top post, and the DPP secured more than eight consecutive years in power for the first time.

In the simultaneous legislative election, of 113 seats the KMT won 52, the DPP 51, the TPP 8 and independents and non-party candidates 2, leaving no party with a majority.

At an international press conference that night Lai said that between democracy and authoritarianism Taiwan had chosen democracy and that its people had resisted interference by external forces. In accordance with the ROC constitutional order, he said, he would "maintain the status quo, neither humble nor overbearing", replacing containment with exchanges and confrontation with dialogue on the basis of parity and dignity, while remaining determined to protect Taiwan in the face of China's "verbal and military intimidation".

Reactions

On the evening of 13 January Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said the results showed that "the DPP does not represent mainstream public opinion on the island", that the election would not change the basic landscape and direction of cross-Strait relations or stop "the trend that the motherland will eventually and inevitably be reunified", and that Beijing would adhere to the 1992 Consensus and resolutely oppose "Taiwan independence" separatist acts and external interference. The same day US Secretary of State Antony Blinken congratulated Lai and said Washington looked forward to working with him and leaders of all parties to further its longstanding unofficial relationship with Taiwan, consistent with the US one China policy.

The Inauguration and "Joint Sword-2024A"

On 20 May 2024 Lai and Hsiao were sworn in, with Legislative Yuan Speaker Han Kuo-yu presenting the seals of office. In his inaugural address Lai said that "the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to each other", called on China to cease its verbal and military intimidation of Taiwan, and proposed beginning with the resumption of reciprocal tourism and of mainland degree students studying in Taiwan.

On 23 and 24 May the PLA Eastern Theater Command deployed army, navy, air force and rocket force units around Taiwan for the "Joint Sword-2024A" exercise, practising joint sea-air combat-readiness patrols, the joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control and joint precision strikes on key targets. A theater spokesman called it a stern punishment for the separatist acts of "Taiwan independence" forces and a serious warning against interference and provocation by external forces.